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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's field is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still